服貿議題－問與答－李宜豐

我一位CFA Level I的學生，3月28日在我的Skype留言，問我有關服貿協議的相關議題。他說，「老師，若只對大陸開放資金、投資，並沒有開放勞工，那麼為什麼很多勞工工會會強調惡性競爭，造成所得、資源分配不均?」

我根據2014年CFA Level I官方版本教材，第 2 冊經濟學第448頁最後一段到449頁前三段，有關區域整合的問題之原文及翻譯整理如下，以供有興趣的考生參考：

Although regional integration has many advantages, it may impose costs on some groups. For example, there was significant concern in the United States that NAFTA and especially low-skilled-labor intensive imports from Mexico could hurt low-skilled workers. Adjustment costs arose as import competition caused inefficient firms to exit the market, and the workers in those firms were at least temporarily unemployed as they sought new jobs. However, the surviving firms experienced an increase in productivity, and U.S. consumers benefited from the increase in product varieties imported from Mexico. Feenstra and Taylor (2008) estimated that the product varieties exported from Mexico to the United States had grown by an average of 2.2 percent a year across all industries. They estimated that NAFTA imposed private costs of nearly $5.4 billion a year in the United States during 1994-2002, but that these costs were offset by an average welfare gain of $5.5 billion a year accruing from increased varieties imported from Mexico. Consumer gains from more varieties of products continued over time as long as the imports continued, while adjustment costs arising from job losses declined over time. In 2003, the gain from increased product varieties from Mexico was $11 billion, far exceeding the adjustment costs of $5.4 billion. Their analysis concluded:

… Thus the consumer gains from increased product variety, when summed over the years, considerably exceed the private loss from displacement. This outcome is guaranteed to occur because the gains from expanded import varieties occur every year that the imports are available, whereas labor displacement is a temporary phenomenon. (Feenstra and Taylor 2008, p. 208)

It is important to recognize, however, that workers displaced by regional integration may have to bear long-term losses if they are unable to find jobs with wages comparable with the jobs they lost or they remain unemployed for a long period. For example, although import competition was certainly not the only factor that led to a dramatic contraction of the U.S. automobile industry, the impact on employment in that industry is likely to be permanent and many former autoworkers, especially older workers, may never find comparable jobs.

沒有錯，雖然區域整合有許多優點，但是不管區域整合的深淺程度如何，區域整合，都會增加某些團體的成本。例如，美國在加入北美自由貿易區時，也面臨重大考驗，特別是從墨西哥進口的低－技術－勞力密集產品會傷到美國的低－技術工人。進口競爭導致無效率的廠商退出市場，而產生「調整成本」(adjustment cost)。而且，那些廠商的工人，在找到新工作前，必定有一段暫時性的失業。但是存活下來的廠商歷經生產力的大增，而且美國消費者，因從墨西哥進口商品，所增加的多樣性，而得到好處。

芬斯特(Feenstra)與泰勒(Taylor)兩人在2008年估計，從墨西哥出口到美國的產品多樣性，在所有產業每年平均增加2.2%。他們估計，北美自由貿易區在1994年-2002年之間，每年增加美國私部門將近$54億美元的成本，但是這些成本被每年從墨西哥進口商品所增加的多樣性，平均增加財富利得$55億美元所抵銷。